LSE Soiree Butler Tullow Oil TLW.L

Tullow OilTullow Oil plc (Tullow) is an United Kingdom -based company engaged in oil and gas exploration, development and production and the sale of hydrocarbons and related activities. It operates in three geographical segments: Europe, South America and Asia; West and North Africa and South and East Africa. The Company has interests in over 100 production and exploration licences in 22 countries and focuses on four core areas: Africa, Europe, South Asia and South America.

Tullow Oil is trading above the moving 50 day average and above the moving 200 day average on above-average volume.
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  • Re: enjoying the rally by commercia
    Wed, 22 Oct 2014 10:52:00 GMT

    who here reads brummell's essays? By commercia
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  • Re: enjoying the rally by brummell
    Wed, 22 Oct 2014 08:38:00 GMT

    The Moody's rating focusses mainly on the extent to which TLW is linked to Ghana. You have to ask why it has taken Moody so long to realise that? The level risk that TLW attracts because of Ghana is arguable, the oil market is international. It seems strange to make so much of the risk of potential tax changes. Ghana knows that it has to stay attractive to oil companies if it wants to develop its oil assets and the increased level of production will benefit Ghana's rating. When TLW sells some of its Ghana stake as planned that should improve its rating.

    Plenty of positives in the statement, especially:

    "Tullow's conservative financial policies, including a stable dividend payout and its pro-active oil price risk management, continue to support the ratings."


    "Tullow's liquidity position remains solid and is supported by (i) its USD3.5 billion reserves based lending facility amortising from October 2016 and maturing in December 2019, supported by a wide group of international banks, including the IFC; (ii) its secured revolving credit facility (RCF), refinanced in March 2014, increased to USD750 million and extended to 2017 and (iii) the issuance of certain letters of credit for USD200 million under bilateral arrangements. As of 30 July 2014, Tullow reported total availabilities of USD2.5 billion under its facilities."

    Overall the report simply seems to reiterate the ever present E&P risks of operating in third world countries and of frontier exploration. The big producers avoid that by buying assets at the point when a significant proportion of risk has been eliminated by the explorers and I'd say that most explorers therefore don't get full recompense for their risk, despite making a good profit on discoveries. Imho TLW has played a large part in de-risking Ghana as a country and is bucking the E&P trend by seeking its fair share of the rewards in adequate compensation for that. The Moody's rating should assist in that if a future rerating fairly and promptly reflects future risk reductions.
    By brummell
  • Re: enjoying the rally by Innocent2009
    Wed, 22 Oct 2014 00:05:00 GMT

    Well, the moody rating hardly had any effect today mainly because of good china news.. But when the things goes bad, their rating may affect the share price badly. I hope they(Tullow) do release better news due next month..

    Good luck.
    By Innocent2009
  • Re: enjoying the rally by give the dog a bone
    Tue, 21 Oct 2014 23:34:00 GMT

    someone should downgrade Moodies.

    they are a total Ponzi outfit who exist because they manage to get the coy they're assessing to foot the bill for the Meedies rating.

    so if you think that is independent , think again.

    Meedies missed the whole financial crises in 2007, they missed the whole debacle of Greece and the soft euro countries so who or what gives them any credibility ?

    time to wise up - meedies are only there so that whenever n the whole ponzi scheme goes awray, the money managers profesionals can say " oh we based our decision on meedies . If meedies didn't know , how were we to know ?
    By give the dog a bone
  • Re: enjoying the rally by Innocent2009
    Tue, 21 Oct 2014 17:17:00 GMT

    The full article is below :
    Rating Action: Moody's lowers Tullow's rating to Ba3 and assigns negative outlook
    Global Credit Research - 21 Oct 2014
    London, 21 October 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded to Ba3/Ba3-PD from Ba2/Ba2-PD the corporate family and probability of default ratings of Tullow Oil plc ("Tullow") Moody's also downgraded to B2/LGD 5 from B1/LGD 5 the ratings on its USD 650 million 2020 and USD 650 million 2022 senior notes. Concurrently, Moody's assigned a negative outlook to the issuer.


    The downgrade of the CFR from Ba2 to Ba3 and the consequent one-notch downgrade of the bond ratings reflect Moody's reassessment of the increasing country risk exposure to Ghana, where Tullow retains considerable and increasing concentration. Its core Jubilee field has accounted for approximately 45% of its production in 2014 (before adjusting for the recently announced divestments of the European producing assets, principally in the UK and the Netherlands). However, following the divestment of the European operations, Ghana would account for 54% of production, and approximately 90% of production would be concentrated in Ghana, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea. Projected growth in capex and production in Ghana should reinforce this concentration: Tullow's next big project TEN, that remains the focus of its investment programme in 2015-2016 and underpins Moody's production and developed reserve growth assumptions for the rating, is also located in Ghana.

    Moody's downgraded Ghana's sovereign rating from B1 to B2/ negative in June 2014. The repositioning of Tullow's ratings reflects our view on more limited de-linkage of the company's credit ratings from the ratings of the largest country of operations.

    Tullow's Ba3 CFR is now positioned two notches above Ghana's B2/ negative rating, supported by several mitigating factors, including (a) Tullow's off-shore production and direct international sales of crude, (b) its US dollar-based pricing, (c) its established and diversified financing framework, which does not depend on the domestic banking system in Ghana, and (d) a limited degree of production diversification with approximately half of production in other West African countries.

    Furthermore, Tullow's Petroleum Agreements (PAs) specify its corporate tax and a 5% royalty paid in the country. Given investment tax deductions allowed by Ghana to promote growth of its oil sector, we expect that a negative impact on Tullow's cash flows of any future tax increases may be mitigated by its substantial on-going investment in TEN, while Ghana is counting on the successful completion of this USD 4.9 billion strategic project in mid-2016.

    Tullow's Ba3 CFR remains supported by the strong execution of its organic growth strategy that has boosted its resource portfolio and financial performance in the context of conservative financial management practices, while reflecting the higher risk characteristics inherent to its focus on exploration activity, limited and concentrated producing asset base, as well as aforementioned constraints of the country risk exposure.

    The rating also reflects Tullow's sizeable oil and gas resource base, which has been enhanced in recent years by a successful exploration and appraisal programme leading to the opening of new hydrocarbon basins and significant oil discoveries in West and East Africa, and in the Barents Sea in Norway. The rating is further supported by the relatively good visibility of longer term development projects, based on its existing oil discoveries in Ghana, Uganda and Kenya, that underpin the production growth trajectory.

    Until the completion of the TEN project, Tullow's leverage will remain elevated. Capital expenditure results in substantial negative free cash flow and rising debt leverage until after the TEN project comes on stream in mid-2016. Taking into account our recently revised oil price assumptions ($90/boe Brent in 2015), w By Innocent2009
  • Re: enjoying the rally by Innocent2009
    Tue, 21 Oct 2014 17:15:00 GMT

    I hope it can sustain as china data helped today somehow. Another negative news today - Moody dowgraded tullow. The link is

    By Innocent2009
  • NEW ARTICLE: A beginner's guide to investing in commodities by II Editor
    Tue, 21 Oct 2014 14:46:00 GMT

    "Commodities are physical assets. They include metals like gold and silver, oil and gas, and so-called 'soft' commodities such as wheat, sugar and cocoa beans. Agriculture, which was traditionally hard for investors to access, also comes under the ..."

    link By II Editor
  • enjoying the rally by give the dog a bone
    Tue, 21 Oct 2014 14:39:00 GMT

    even if it's two days up and down the third , good to see some drifting up at last .

    the analists seem to be pitching a consensus of mi 800s so massive gap to correct.

    wrt the recent postings , it seems no one has a bulls notion what is going on so I'm giving this a 7

    By give the dog a bone
  • TENs FSPO progress by Edvardo
    Mon, 20 Oct 2014 14:00:00 GMT

    "When completed in the fourth quarter of 2015, the TEN Development FPSO will have a capacity of production and treatment of 80,000 bpd of crude oil, 65,000 bpd of produced water, and 180 MMscfd of gas, with an on-board storage capacity of 1.7 million barrels. The facility will include for delivery 132,000 bpd of filtered, de-aerated seawater."

    link By Edvardo
  • Total on Uganda by Edvardo
    Mon, 20 Oct 2014 13:55:00 GMT

    "To make it bankable, it is the shared interest of the governments and companies to use the shortest and most economical route to the safest port for oil tankers. It is also our shared interest that the pipeline enjoys the highest security to avoid disruption of transport and of revenues,” Rafin told a recent media briefing.

    Rafin a Senior Business Executive who has worked with Total for over 35 years and will be responsible for transitioning and preparing Total E&P Uganda’s operations in the Lake Albert basin for the production stage was addressing journalists at his unveiling party.

    He said: “This project is key for the development of Uganda. The country needs investments to remain attractive. As such, a conducive taxation regime is the second enabler of the oil development and would lead to a quickest kick off of production.”

    link By Edvardo
  • Oilie greed on the punters tab by SilverSnout
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 17:26:00 GMT

    Them oilies are something.
    BG payin out $50m for ex-Statoil boss? Mad that. He ain't a good fit for a small oilie like BG.
    Same with oilie TLW payin bosses crazy dineros for failure. I bet the big fella put in for a rise when he heard bout the BG fella.
    An another thing. Oilies is highest payers in the ftse. Why dat?
    You know where the best paid tree huggers workin? Oilies. ROFLMAO at that.
    Thems the sorta companies you invested in punters. Mugs. PR puffers. Overpaid plodders. You ain't gonna get your money back any time soon but you can bet your last dollar that the big fella, the MD , Mr duster, the chief tree-hugger an the rest of them overpaid staff gonna be havin their nebs in the trough as long as you let em.
    $ilver$nout By SilverSnout
  • Re: Finally the pipeline consultant may turn up by MisterX1
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 10:37:00 GMT

    Well doodlebugger - you have hit the nail on the head bang on !!

    Just to get to the point of actually hiring a person for this exercise alone, and then considering how long it will actually take to get anything off the ground in East Africa, production in 2016 is of course, an impossible and preposterous dream.

    In fact, this whole process will take a lot longer than all the naïve punters imagine, will be plagued with politics and security issues, land issues, expenditures X times more than anticipated, cross border issues, and a whole host of other issues that you can imagine.

    There is much ROFLMAO here in East Africa about the absurdity of production happening before another 10 years [never mind 2016 - 2 years] - IF it is to happenwhich many claim will not.

    In the meantime, its in danger of becoming a white elephant.

    Time for some champers soon as MisterX1 is in Arusha [TZ] now looking at the possibility of buying into some future house development overlooking with a golf course with spectacular views of Mount Kilamanjaro.

    Oh.with the sailing, and now potentially golf what a lovely life still beckons

    Till two weeks time as have plenty of people to see, discuss issues and present my report....

    Bye for now.bye bye

    By MisterX1
  • Finally the pipeline consultant may turn up by Doodlebugger
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 09:14:00 GMT

    Article below shows just how slow things can go in Africa, after starting to look for a consultant in June they may in October actually award so he’ll start in Nov – that’s four months plus just to hire one man – production by 2016? I doubt it. Also if you read the article looks like it’s already been decided to go to Lamu- you can’t imagine the howls of disbelief this causes the expat security wallahs in Kenya…

    NAIROBI, Oct 16 (Reuters) – Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda are in the final stages of deciding on a consultant to oversee building a pipeline to pump the region's new oil bonanza to the coast for export, a senior Kenyan energy ministry officials said on Thursday. In June, the three countries invited bids for a consultant to oversee a feasibility study and initial design for the construction of a 1,300-km (808-mile) oil pipeline to transport crude to the Kenyan coast. "We are in the final stage of negotiating with the consultant who will do a feasibility study and the front end engineering design for a crude oil pipeline which should run from Hoima to coastal region of this country," Joseph Njoroge, principal secretary at the Ministry Energy and Petroleum told an east African oil and gas conference. "Very soon, early next month," Martin Heya, commissioner of petroleum at the same ministry said of the award timing. Njoroge said the consultant would be required finish the study within five months of the award. In addition to the pipeline, the consultant would be required to supervise the construction of a fibre optic cable from Hoima in Uganda through the Lokichar basin in northwest Kenya to Lamu, and tank terminals in Hoima, Lokichar and Lamu. The project will also involve the construction of a 9-km pipeline from the Lamu tank terminal to an offshore mooring buoys. Kenya's energy ministry said earlier this year the aim of having a single consultant for the whole project was to ensure consistency in the quality of the whole pipeline. East Africa has become potentially lucrative for international oil firms after Kenya and Uganda's commercial oil finds and discoveries of gas off the coast of Tanzania and Mozambique. Tullow Oil and Africa Oil, which control blocks in Kenya, have estimated discoveries in the South Lokichar basin at 600 million barrels, a level experts say is enough to make a pipeline viable even without Uganda. In neighbouring Uganda, the government estimates its crude reserves at 3.5 billion barrels. Njoroge put the estimated crude oil recoverable reserves at about 1 billion barrels from the tertiary Rift Valley Basin, and about 1 trillion cubic standard feet of natural gas in the Anza Basin, and about 750 billion cubic feet of gas in the Lamu Basin, all in Kenya. (Editing by William Hardy) By Doodlebugger
  • Re: More investment in Ghana by brummell
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 01:42:00 GMT

    G, buys and sells are irrelevant to the point in question. What is interesting in is NT trades reported at the mid price because they are likely to have been reported from a dark pool. The reason that is interesting is, as I have said, that a buyer in the dark pool can sell on the public exchange. His purchase will be hidden from the exchange but his sales will lower the price which will reduce the mid price and therefore also drive the price down in the dark pool.

    I realise that Dark Pools are used to hide transactions from the main exchange and that in itself distorts liquidity, so you could say that the party that is moving the sales into the main exchange is doing a service by restoring balance by bringing the transactions into public view but I think that it also opens up opportunities for manipulative trading. There are many interesting and authoritative articles on the topic of Dark Pools and I have already referred to one. For whatever reason the discussion here always seems to drift off into irrelevant issues that simply obscure the real points so isn't worth pursuing. If I spot any papers or articles that cover the issues in a palatable way I will post references to them. By brummell
  • Re: Interesting Comments on Tullow by Big Grey
    Fri, 17 Oct 2014 16:42:00 GMT 1611 written all over it!!! By Big Grey
  • danny by Cognito
    Mon, 20 Oct 2014 08:21:10 GMT

    Sad to see you go mate.. It happens to the best of us at times. I hope you have a fruitful week and I'll see you next weekend probably. :-) Don't forget to throw the kitchen sink at it. haha
  • danny by Cognito
    Sun, 19 Oct 2014 08:54:23 GMT

    Haha im no different lol
  • fork by Cognito
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 20:52:45 GMT

    I knew my magic wand was long at 3 damn damn damn
  • danny by Cognito
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 20:47:28 GMT

    Dyer? Haha mate watch out for barcs
  • joe by Cognito
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 20:26:49 GMT

    dog did you catch it...???
  • Have a look at bp. For an example by Rigger
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 19:53:01 GMT

    P/e 5.7. Cheap shares against earnings.
  • P/e by Rigger
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 19:48:51 GMT

    I should add, it should never be negative.
  • P/e by Rigger
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 19:47:47 GMT

    A ratio of ten is reasonable. Anything lower is a bargain.
  • Dannyboy by Rigger
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 19:12:29 GMT

    The P/E ratio is still too high. Bubble.
  • RE: TLW's African Properties by tradernor
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 18:54:42 GMT

    another article from SA about TLW:


  • good day by kovalic
    Fri, 17 Oct 2014 15:51:27 GMT

    New to the BB, but what a gain today (so far)! Patience is a virtue, but TLW looked good value at 850p, calling the turns always the tricky bit! Hopefully, a rally back to a sensible valuation with lots to look forward to on the horizon. Tip top firm....
  • danny by rbrand
    Fri, 17 Oct 2014 13:01:41 GMT

    I smile when I see new poster suddenly putting in so many posts one after the other. May not be but does look like desperation ? The professional shorters have done very well sic here but I doubt they are looking for more now the drop was clearly overdone due to the hysterics about the oil glut.The rise looks like short closing to me.
  • RE: essexmatt by EssexMatt
    Fri, 17 Oct 2014 12:04:03 GMT

    See your point but when sentiment returns to a sector nav becomes more relevant. IMHO tullow is a takeover target for the future
  • RE: Matt by EssexMatt
    Wed, 15 Oct 2014 21:05:59 GMT

    True, but this is still far below nav and it's been hammered too hard over crude drop. Kenyas exciting and tullow have great exposure to upside in the new rift frontier
  • TLW's African Properties by tradernor
    Wed, 15 Oct 2014 15:38:46 GMT

    Given TLW's huge exposure in Africa, this analysis from Seeking Alpha is a Must Read. It includes the key ratios for many oil producers from Africa (Gulfsands Petroleum, Circle Oil, Eland Oil, Mart Resources, Gulf Keystone etc.) and Latin America: