LSE Soiree Butler Tullow Oil TLW.L

Tullow OilTullow Oil plc (Tullow) is an United Kingdom -based company engaged in oil and gas exploration, development and production and the sale of hydrocarbons and related activities. It operates in three geographical segments: Europe, South America and Asia; West and North Africa and South and East Africa. The Company has interests in over 100 production and exploration licences in 22 countries and focuses on four core areas: Africa, Europe, South Asia and South America.

Tullow Oil is trading above the moving 50 day average and above the moving 200 day average on above-average volume.
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  • Not Enough $'s to Go Round by Backhander
    Fri, 31 Oct 2014 09:30:00 GMT


    By Backhander
  • Free 2014 IPO Guide
  • Re: Ghana Gas to startup in November by MisterX1
    Thu, 30 Oct 2014 21:40:00 GMT

    Hey bmr..I see that your"limpet" has "voted" you up again ? Why dat ? Is it u alias ?

    So where are those swaggering punters who in the early days ridiculed MisterX1 and other wise punters - buried their heads in shame ??

    ROFLMAO By MisterX1
  • Re: Ghana Gas to startup in November by MisterX1
    Thu, 30 Oct 2014 15:54:00 GMT

    "the “fair value” is 757p (some 53% higher than the current price of 495p)."

    There is "mathematical value" - the perfect world where all that matters is the calculation and nothing else. This is what optimists or delusional punters want [classified above as "fair value" and of course considerably lower than 1611 LOL]
    Then there is "practical value" - the real world where all risks are taken into account. For example, UG where the so called reserves are worth next to nothing in a realists mind - Kenya with similar et al. This is what the wise punters look at.

    Unfortunately for the dreamers on the BB they are one of a mathematical value -

    Conclusion : another "expert" view at Fair value 757...yeah right..they have proven themselves beyond doubt as charlatans

    Should have come to MisterX1 and the wise punters to have been told the obvious..


    By MisterX1
  • Re: Ghana Gas to startup in November by brummell
    Thu, 30 Oct 2014 11:40:00 GMT

    It is true that the banks won't pay much attention to the share price when deciding TLW's value, they will look at asset values. Another quote from the article:

    "the “fair value” is 757p (some 53% higher than the current price of 495p)."

    And that "fair value" will increase as oil in the ground is proven and production increases. The anticipation of future value prompted past highs and as that value materialises the share price must rise. Just as the underestimation of risk leads to premature highs so the overestimation of risk leads to unwarranted lows. That's E&P for you, always a struggle to keep a balanced view of the risk and the risk at these price levels following further confirmation of reserves must be less than at the highs. By brummell
  • Re: Ghana Gas to startup in November by Cashman103
    Wed, 29 Oct 2014 23:51:00 GMT

    The banks won`t keep lending if the debt isn`t fully backed by assets. By Cashman103
  • Re: Ghana Gas to startup in November by Edvardo
    Wed, 29 Oct 2014 16:46:00 GMT

    "Even if oil falls to US$80 and stays there for the next two years Amor estimates Tullow’s net debt would rise to US$4.9bn which is within its US$5.5bn financing facilities."

    $4.9bn over half the market value of Tullow, (0.9bn shares * £5 * 1.6$/£ = $7.2bn)
    So if you bought Tullow it would end up costing you an extra $4.9bn due to the debt burden.
    Add to that the Ugandan poison pill and the possibility of oil falling to $60/bbl then go figure who in their right mind would buy Tullow ?

    By Edvardo
  • Re: Ghana Gas to startup in November by brummell
    Wed, 29 Oct 2014 16:31:00 GMT


    "But, according to broker RFC Ambrian, the share’s downtrodden valuation is not warranted with analyst Stuart Amor today repeating a ‘buy’ recommendation"

    "“We believe this fall in Tullow’s share price offers long-term investors an attractive entry opportunity.”

    Amor says investors are unduly concerned about Tullow’s financial leverage and its large exposure to the large TEN Project – it has a 50% stake in the project which will cost US$4.9bn to first oil.

    He points out that Tullow “has made clear” it can fund TEN to first oil, which is scheduled for mid-2016. “Our model suggests that this is true, even with our new lower oil price forecasts,” he added.

    Even if oil falls to US$80 and stays there for the next two years Amor estimates Tullow’s net debt would rise to US$4.9bn which is within its US$5.5bn financing facilities."
    By brummell
  • Re: More Could Be Done to Punish Traders by brummell
    Tue, 28 Oct 2014 13:22:00 GMT

    Good find carliol. The only argument I could have is with the statement:

    "The risk is that, as memories of recent enforcement cases fade, bad practices may re-emerge,"

    They don't need to RE-emerge, they never went away - but some will continue trying to convince us that they don't actually happen.

    Let's hope that strengthened resolve adds to the recent comments at the Treasury Select Committee, including those by the Chairman, and leads to a proper recognition of what manipulation really is and that criminal prosecutions for fraud will follow.


    As for TLW, do we see another little used alias suddenly springing into heightened activity with distorted valuations. Could it possibly be that someone wants PIs to feel relieved at the offer of a paltry sum for their shares when a hostile bid is launched? My guess is that if one is coming it will need to be announced when as many shares as possible have been hoovered up but well before the news of increased production hardens and it will aim to capture as many pledges as possible on the first trawl. That could be achieved by an attractive offer or by threats of being squeezed out, depending on how many shares have been picked up by the bidders in the lead up. All imho, but time will tell. By brummell
  • Ghana Gas to startup in November by Edvardo
    Tue, 28 Oct 2014 11:27:00 GMT

    "He said this will end the country's over-reliance on the West African gas pipeline which has been inconsistent with supplying gas to the country.

    He said, "We had a lot of excitement when the gas pipeline was built hoping that the abundance of Nigerian gas will flow through the pipeline to help all the four countries signed onto the pipeline, but the volume has been very disappointing."

    He, however, expressed the hope that the country's current energy crisis will stabilise when works on the Atuabo gas processing plant is completed, adding that the plant should start producing gas for power generation by the end of November.

    Mahama said the facility, which has the capacity to generate about 140 million standard cubic feet of natural gas a day, is estimated to save the country more than $500 million annually when it is substituted for light crude oil in the generation of power.

    In addition, he stated that the facility will produce more than 70 per cent of the estimated 240,000 tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) required annually for domestic use in the country."

    By Edvardo
  • More Could Be Done to Punish Traders by carliol
    Mon, 27 Oct 2014 22:00:00 GMT

    Evening All,

    Interesting news item from BBC.

    Chancellor George Osborne, ordered the inquiry - called Making Markets Fair and Effective - to try and restore the reputation of other UK-based financial markets.

    More could be done to punish traders who try to manipulate financial markets, the deputy governor of the Bank of England has said.


    By carliol
  • Re: Kenya / Uganda export pipeline ... by Edvardo
    Mon, 27 Oct 2014 16:27:00 GMT

    "Global development lenders, including the World Bank, African Development Bank and European Union, pledged more than $8 billion on Monday to boost economic growth and reduce poverty in eight countries in the Horn of Africa."

    link By Edvardo
  • Kenya / Uganda export pipeline by Edvardo
    Mon, 27 Oct 2014 16:24:00 GMT

    "The World Bank has pledged some $600 million to facilitate the construction of a regional pipeline linking oil fields in Uganda, Kenya and South Sudan, the lender said Monday."

    link By Edvardo
  • Re: biz model rethink by acsatix
    Mon, 27 Oct 2014 14:35:00 GMT

    I am sorry I misse dout certain updates in 1H2014 (was still looking at FY13 results)

    according to this they now have a 2,8 B $ debt on 30 m USD operating profit... this was when they relaized 106 $ per barrell... now it is 85$ in good days... so really we could see 270M $ less revenue in H2 and 520 M annualized - straigh off the bottom line (which if you think about it is a profit before tax level at which a company would be valued about the curreent market cap of tullow!!!)... (at constant CAPEX and opex).


    employees are indeed less than I thought now (1700) so they have a 340 M approx cost due to that.

    this stacks aginst revenuew of 2.3 B and falling and capex of about 2.2 B in 2014 against the monster debt quoted above... assets seems about 1.2 T barrels in reserves which of course are worth much less than the barrels times current price of oil especially if no one needs these in the timeframe TLW would need to dispose of them e.g. to finance operations. I assume a firesale can always work of course but then this should be reflected in SP.

    so really the investment case at current oil prices is shaky By acsatix
  • Re: biz model rethink by mrposhman
    Mon, 27 Oct 2014 11:23:00 GMT

    I don't doubt that. Its definitely possible and certainly the way most oil companies appear to being priced right now. Shale certainly is the big unknown, particularly in the US. There are certainly possibilities with what the US government could do, they could temporarily reduce royalties etc which will impact on shale margins favourably.

    Cashflow generation (particularly hedged production) will still be strong at for offshore companies, just not as strong as we have been used to over the last few years. By mrposhman
  • Re: biz model rethink by acsatix
    Mon, 27 Oct 2014 11:07:00 GMT

    " Bear in mind this may only be short term, we don't know what the OPEC meeting will come up with in November"

    this may be structural as shale technology+ramp up in exploration that gave birth to massive amount of explores when oil price was high is driving a glut of capacity not met by a glut in demand (and actually technoloy trends and medium term growth forecasts seem t pint to a lower growth in demand than expected. Now with OPEC in control of just 40% of the oil production and with no evidence the remainder of the 60% cannot expand production if some was missing from OPEC, I would be careful to bet in near term price reversals. and in any event it is prdent now not to assume these E&P companies can generate lots of farmout revenue and so their valutation has to be attuned to that of majors with P/E in the single digits till E is visible at lower oil price point. so this will drive inevitably a valutation lower than the amount of sales per year. By acsatix
  • About the African Oil Producers by tradernor
    Wed, 29 Oct 2014 15:32:31 GMT

    Given Tullow's significant exposure to Africa and South America (Suriname, Uruguay etc.), this is an insightful analysis full of key data about many African and South American oil producers:


  • RE: The future about BRENT and WTI by tradernor
    Wed, 29 Oct 2014 15:22:20 GMT

    and this is another bullish one from FORBES:


  • RE: weak week. by EssexMatt
    Sat, 25 Oct 2014 21:14:14 GMT

    Early next month
  • RE: weak week. by HarryJoe
    Fri, 24 Oct 2014 17:38:34 GMT

    Thanks for that EssexMatt, when is the OPEC decision? I've a feeling these are good valve at this price.
  • RE: weak week. by EssexMatt
    Fri, 24 Oct 2014 17:04:12 GMT

    Crude prices been see sawing a bit. Think big players are probally waiting for OPEC decision before getting back in
  • weak week. by HarryJoe
    Fri, 24 Oct 2014 11:25:40 GMT

    After a big spike last Friday these hasn't shown much strength since, any ideas why?
  • The future about BRENT and WTI by tradernor
    Thu, 23 Oct 2014 10:31:39 GMT

    Insightful and bullish analysis from Seeking Alpha about Brent and WTI:


  • danny by Cognito
    Mon, 20 Oct 2014 08:21:10 GMT

    Sad to see you go mate.. It happens to the best of us at times. I hope you have a fruitful week and I'll see you next weekend probably. :-) Don't forget to throw the kitchen sink at it. haha
  • danny by Cognito
    Sun, 19 Oct 2014 08:54:23 GMT

    Haha im no different lol
  • fork by Cognito
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 20:52:45 GMT

    I knew my magic wand was long at 3 damn damn damn
  • danny by Cognito
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 20:47:28 GMT

    Dyer? Haha mate watch out for barcs
  • joe by Cognito
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 20:26:49 GMT

    dog did you catch it...???
  • Have a look at bp. For an example by Rigger
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 19:53:01 GMT

    P/e 5.7. Cheap shares against earnings.
  • P/e by Rigger
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 19:48:51 GMT

    I should add, it should never be negative.
  • P/e by Rigger
    Sat, 18 Oct 2014 19:47:47 GMT

    A ratio of ten is reasonable. Anything lower is a bargain.