"MrX, can't you be a nice person just for a day? Does everything have to be bickering and nasty and point scoring? "
Eventually any sane person gets fed up with it, Runster. The stooges are implacable and relentless and never-ending with their classic "good cop" (buy, buy, buy it's going to £22), "bad cop" (sell, sell, sell it's going to £5) routine. Perhaps they're all employed by market makers just to generate volatility. We all know MMs make money on turnover. By Guesstimate
Getting back to the subject, TLW, 844.5 is the level to watch. If that breaks and TLW prints a new low, then the whole move up to 908 last week was a bull trap (into which I fell, note ) and TLW is likely to be returning to its downtrend, sad to say. Fingers crossed.
From a positive perspective TLW needs to regain 863, which is where the downtrend line that prompted my initial punt currently lies.
Sorry Guessimate, but I was going by your posts on this board. Companies like Tullow are more a storage of value for me, just like money(gold and silver, currency is a poor storage). The profit is gained with the difference between the buy and selling price whether people go long or short. By Cashman103
"Where do you think the sp will be in say 3 year?"
Ah Eric....first I think you will have noticed that your question has thus far gone unanswered, and all you get are carefully guarded words that mean nothing - if the sp was to go up, they would take credit for "advising" you, if down, then they will have "warned" you about possible pitfalls. In particular there is a ramper on this bb [thankfully on ignore from my side now] that has been posting "Buy" for nearly two years since Feb 12 when the sp was 1611, and as at today refuses to accept responsibility - you have to watch them.......you really do. AND also beware that there are aliases with these posters as well - take fzans little mistake today and he is also penuciary. I wonder what other names he/she posts under ? I wonder how many more are of similar ilk on this BB ?
Be warned, oh yes.......beware....!!
Now for some real advice and MisterX1's prediction - BUT, you make the choice at your own risk. Now listen up :
(1) The sp has in the past been hyped up - its a simple as that and was clearly unsustainable. This was when tlw were the glory boys of the city but that has all changed now apparently due to a number of factors.
(2) The strategic move made by tlw in the last 12-24 months has not apparently gone down well. Dusters more than the investors had hoped for - but perfectly normal as they are, after all, an average exploration company with, as some would say, a string of luck in the past. The future is no guarantee of the past performance.
(3) Delays in Uganda - remember the 8 May 2013 over 7 months ago when it was stated that the MOU was only a "few weeks from signing" - and look today ? Nothing. Furthermore, the lack of a proper legislative, fiscal and resource base in UG has made this a difficult one to move into the production & dvlpmnt stage - I estimate around 2018 / 20 before anything may move. In the meantime, money is being ploughed in and will do at an alarming ever increasing rate as the project moves forward and yet - wait for it - not ONE single dollar will come out in revenue. This will surely have an adverse effect on the sp.
(3) Kenya - promises to be a prospect, but has real dangers of regional upset that will conceivably delay development more.
(4) Ethiopia - all wildcat......
And so the list goes on and on and on......
So how will these and many others factors affect the Share Price ?
Its likely to remain at it current trading window - between 850 and 950 but no more. Bad news will depress further. In three years time with all the luck in the world, it may hit 1100 but do not bank on it. With bad news, it could easily fall to below 800. I would suggest max 1000 in three years time.
But whatever you do, do NOT listen to the rampers here - they invested heavily at unsustainable highs, have paper losses and several of those unfortunate punters have now come to the point where they are starting to have to sell - and will at a loss [if they have not done already] For some, its a choice between food or keeping the share !
Hence the self interest when advising of sp.
MisterX1 is the wise choice for advice - after all, she is the only one proved correct as to where the sp two years ago would end up today - you cannot deny that. Simply cheack for yourself.
Bit unfair cashman. I have long term investments (AOI being one), which I hardly ever trade. I also do a fair bit of short term trading, especially on commodities like gold and the indices. Over the past year I've made more money on the short term stuff than I have on the long term positions. But the cutting losses and taking profits principle is the same with either term/view.
"Speculation" has derogatory connotations, whereas "investment" always sounds more ethical. There is no real difference. Any type of equity investment is speculation. Look it up in a dictionary. Anyone who claims they are investing in TLW for TLW's sake, or for "the development of Africa", is being ridiculous. They're investing in TLW in order to make a capital gain, plain and simple. The only difference is one of timescale. You can of course choose ethical investments over unethical ones (as a matter of principle I've never invested in tobacco companies, although the yields are excellent), but oil E&P is not usually regarded as being high on the ethical scale.
But each to his own. Incidentally, I wouldn't recommend short term trading to anyone that hadn't done it professionally. Heard too many horror stories especially where leverage comes into it. I find it shocking that there are so many spread-betting firms around these days. But then I'm an old fogey who finds the plethora of advertising for "in-game sports betting" and on-line casinos as a horrific time bomb for the next generation. These adverts are as pernicious as alcohol and tobacco advertising, and yet are allowed to dominate sports broadcasting before any "watershed" arrangement comes into play. Kids are being groomed to believe that they can make easy money betting that Rooney will score next, and kids never read the small print.
If you wanted to make a great long term investment, find a company that runs counselling programmes/facilities for gambling addicts. By Guesstimate
Guesstimate is obviously a speculater. I would take a different view as an invester. If you have studied the fundamentals, and the price goes down, I would say add, bearing in mind you have been sensible and spread your risk by investing in at least six companies and other asset classes. I sold some Tullow shares on the way down, not because of any stop loss, but to rebalance my portfolio. It was a coincidence that they fell further. I try to keep 65% shares, 25% gold and 10% cash. By Cashman103
Oh Eric. Dread to think what brummell told you. Remember he was posting daily buy recs all the way down.
Best advice anyone could give you is "Don't Get Emotional". Emotional decisions about money are ALWAYS bad ones (whether it's investing or having that third bottle of champers, eh MrX1?). Stop losses are a way of cutting the emotion out of taking a loss. When you set a stop loss level you ideally do it before you invest. At that point you should be completely rational, completely dispassionate. It's just arithmetic, how much you're prepared to lose backing your investment idea. Hopefully you've looked at the charts and seen historic support levels or price points below which a share would be in a significant decline and set your stop level around there.
If the stop is triggered, then you'll be hurting, you will be emotional about it, you will have lost money, which no-one likes. Then is the worst point to start making decisions whether to stick or bail out.
And on a more cheerful note, taking profits is just as crucial a decision. Do exactly the same in the other direction. Have a price target, to be achieved over a period of time. If it reaches the end of that period and it hasn't reached your target, sit down and rationalise why not, and whether your target is now realistic. If it has reached your target, take your profits. In the euphoria of a gain, it's easy to let it ride and then watch profits evaporate as more rational investors (who may well have had the same profit target as you) cash in.
Whether you ever make any money investing is a factor of how accurately you do these two things. It's bloody hard to do consistently, which is why the people who can do it are paid such vast amounts of money. By Guesstimate
Hope you enjoy the "banter", Mr Pecunius . And a Merry Xmas to you and little FanZ.
It's a shame more people don't actively post. I wonder how big the "silent majority" actually is. No stats on II, as far as I can see. By Guesstimate
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Tullow Oil Plc (TLW.L) Announced that the Tultule-1 wildcat well in the South Omo block onshore Ethiopia, has reached a total depth of 2,101 metres and will be plugged and abandoned as a dry hole. The well was targeting a reservoir section similar to the sands drilled in the nearby Sabisa-1 well where oil shows were encountered but these sands were not penetrated in Tultule-1. Gas shows were however recorded which reaffirm the presence of a hydrocarbon source in the region. The results of both the Sabisa-1 and the Tultule-1 wells will now be analysed to determine the future exploration campaign for the area.
This one is now a bid target at this low valuation. The bounce is based on a very high number of small buys but interesting someone is building a stake - wait for the RNS. We will see huge volume come through over the next few weeks and looking at 1100p in short space - short sells will force it when they collapse them. Here we go.......like others I went in heavy at 850 and if we drop to that area again will go in again. Enough of us now who are ready to keep topping up at these prices to hold the SP and wait for our Xmas present to arrive.
Apparently, there is a major hedge fund out there still sitting on a hefty short position in Tullow Oil.
Shares of the Africa-focused exploration and production group have performed abysmally this year and are currently trading 37 per cent below their December 2012 peak of 1371p.
Sellers have ruled the roost for months but several City analysts are now taking the view the fall has been overdone, while industry gossip yet again suggests that timid Tullow is attracting the attention of a couple of cash-rich international bidders who could bid up to £14 a share at the drop of a hard hat. The hedge fund therefore must be getting a little bit twitchy and ready to buy the stock back, so wait for the rally.
Tullow yesterday eased 4p to 865.5p in sympathy with the general dull trend but buyers are ready to pounce should the stock weaken any further. Its extensive drilling campaign in Africa has been successful, especially in Kenya where the Etuko-1 well suggests resources in excess of 300m barrels of oil.
BarCap has a target price of 1525p and says although the group’s overall exploration performance has been less prolific than in the past, the prospectivity of its portfolio remains extremely attractive, particularly its dominant position in onshore East Africa which, given the results so far, has the potential to emerge as a major oil and gas province.
Rival broker Killik is a fan and says Tullow’s ownership of highly prospective assets leaves the group vulnerable to bid speculation.
This time last year speculation was rife that state-controlled PTT Exploration, Thailand’s biggest gas and oil group by market capitalisation, which bought Cove Energy for £1.9bn, and ‘friends’ were considering launching a break-up cash bid for Tullow.
Been here since 2000 but never seen anything like the current downward trend .Bought some and gained and lost along the way but am really fed up with the current proice movements in this and also PMO my other large (for me) oiler . Is it time to bail out of O&G or is this just a temporary blip ? Also , as TLW must now be a taleover target who , aside from Shell and the chinese would be likely contenders and any guess at price PS of a successful bid. Thanks for your insights Rgds Mullaned
Thanks for that. I bought a fair chunk this morning. Hopefully, with Santa Rally just round the corner - (here's hoping) - this will prove to be the bottom, or near enough. TLW must be due a break-out soon.
But, as one who has screwed up badly with BLVN, WTFDIK....